About

This site is the home of a daily ranking for the Ottoneu pick six fantasy baseball system featured at Fangraphs. Rankings for weekend games may not be available very often, but I’ll try to get week day games up as much as I can.

Hitters:

The system takes into account batter/pitcher handedness using a Marcel-type 5/4/3 projection, three-year park factors from Seamheads and pitcher strength. All batters are assumed to face the starting pitcher 2.8 times per game. This number is thanks to help from Colin Wyers and Jason Wojciechowski. Assuming 3.5 plate appearances per game, the remaining 0.7 PAs are based on how well the player is projected, regardless of pitcher handedness.

Starting Pitchers:

Starting pitchers are ranked on their historical stats, park factors and opposing team strength.

Relief Pitchers:

Relief pitchers are ranked in a similar way to starting pitchers, except there is an opportunity multiplier based on how the pitcher has been used this year. Relief pitchers who are more likely to appear in a game are ranked higher and pitchers who have received more saves and holds this year are assumed to have a greater likelihood of getting more.

Small Sample Size Issues:

Batters with fewer than 500 career plate appearances are removed from the rankings due to small sample size issues. Batters who are facing a pitcher with fewer than 700 batters faced are marked on each ranking. Both of these numbers come from a minimum amount of plate appearances to have a qualified season for rate stats. (Obviously, this entire system is an exercise in small sample sizes. Trying to predict how a player will do on a certain day is basically impossible, but that shouldn’t stop you from making an informed decision.)

Future Additions:

Add a Marcel projection for pitchers. Add support for double-header stats.

Just so ya know:

This site is run by Chris St. John of Steal of Home and is not affiliated with Ottoneu or Fangraphs in any way.